Republican political consultant Mark McKinnon gives ten reasons why he thinks the Dems are in trouble, and writes:

...voters are taking a distinctly different, realistic, and frustrated view of the political landscape [than that of President Obama and the Democrats].

Though they once looked to this new kind of president with hope for change, they now know there is no easy fix, or easy blame. They see November coming. Bush is not on their ballot. And they know dancing naked in the streets and bashing Bush won't help.

Democratic leaders need to look in the mirror when placing blame: The naked truth is there.

August 1 ...

In 10 BC the Roman Emperor Claudius was born in Lugdunum in Gaul (modern-day Lyon, France). In 1779 Francis Scott Key was born near Keymar, MD. In 1790 the first US census was completed, showing a population of nearly 4 million people. In 1819 novelist Herman Melville was born in New York City. In 1834 all slaves in the British Empire were emancipated, but still indentured to their former owners in an apprenticeship system which was finally abolished in 1838. In 1876 Colorado was admitted as the 38th state. In 1894 the First Sino-Japanese War erupted, the result of a dispute over control of Korea; Japan's army routed the Chinese. In 1914 Germany declares war on Russia at the opening of World War I. In 1936 the Olympic Games opened in Berlin with a ceremony presided over by Adolf Hitler. In 1942 the Grateful Dead's Jerry Garcia was born in Oakland, CA. In 1944 an uprising broke out in Warsaw, Poland, against Nazi occupation, a revolt that lasted two months before collapsing; also on this day, Anne Frank made the last entry in her diary. In 1946 the Atomic Energy Commission was established. In 1957 the United States and Canada reached agreement to create the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD). In 1966 25-year-old Charles Joseph Whitman shot and killed 15 people at the University of Texas before he was gunned down by police. In 1981 the rock music video channel MTV made its debut.

Randall W. Forsyth:

It may not rank with the Hatfields and the McCoys, but there's a battle raging. It's the Austerians vs. the Keynesians.

In one corner are the advocates of fiscal austerity, many of whom are adherents of the Austrian School of economics. Hence, the contraction into "Austerian." Their motto is to rip off the band-aid and get the pain over with.

Opposing them are the Keynesians, who contend it's counterproductive to tighten belts when people are hungry. Over the years, their prescription has evolved to Bloody Marys after every binge and bust instead of sweating out the previous excesses. So, each binge and hangover gets worse, requiring more relief the next day, which only encourages another bender.

July 31 ...

In 1556 St. Ignatius of Loyola, founder of the Society of Jesus -- the Jesuit order of Catholic priests and brothers -- died in Rome. In 1777 the Marquis de Lafayette, a 19-year-old French nobleman, was made a major-general in the American Continental Army. In 1790 the first US patent was issued to Samuel Hopkins for his process for making potash and pearl ashes. The substance was used in fertilizer. In 1875 the 17th president of the US, Andrew Johnson, died in Carter Station, TN at age 66. In 1912 economist Milton Friedman was born in New York City. In 1919 Germany's Weimar Constitution was adopted. In 1945 Pierre Laval, premier of the pro-Nazi Vichy government, surrendered to US authorities in Austria; he was turned over to France, which later tried and executed him. In 1964 the American space probe Ranger 7 transmitted pictures of the moon's surface. In 1971 Apollo 15 astronauts become the first to ride in a lunar rover. In 1972 Democratic vice-presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton withdrew from the ticket with George McGovern following disclosures Eagleton had once undergone psychiatric treatment. In 1991 President Bush and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in Moscow. In 1999 NASA intentionally crashes the Lunar Prospector spacecraft into the Moon, thus ending its mission to detect frozen water on the moon's surface.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn't want secret ballots for workers in determining unionization.

Huge surprise.

On this day in 1916, 2,000 tons of explosives detonated near New York Harbor on the island of Black Tom, in what was then the largest explosion ever in the US. Some historians believe that the munitions, bound for Britain, were blown up by German agents in what was the first major state-sponsored terrorist event in the US.

July 30 ...

In 1729 the city of Baltimore was founded. In 1818 novelist and poet Emily Bronte was born in Thornton, England. In 1863 Henry Ford was born in Dearborn, MI. In 1864 Union forces tried to take Petersburg, VA by exploding a mine under Confederate defense lines; the attack failed. In 1889 television pioneer Vladimir Zworykin was born in Murom, Russia. In 1890 Casey Stengel was born in Kansas City, MO. In 1916 2,000 tons of explosives detonated near New York Harbor on the island of Black Tom, in what was then the largest explosion ever in the US. Historians believe that the munitions, bound for Britain, were blown up by German agents in what was the first major state-sponsored terrorist event in the US. In 1945 the battle cruiser USS Indianapolis, which had just delivered components for the atomic bomb that would be dropped on Hiroshima, was torpedoed by a Japanese submarine; only 316 out of 1,196 men survived the sinking and shark-infested waters. In 1965 President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Social Security Act of 1965 into law, establishing Medicare and Medicaid. In 1974 President Richard M. Nixon released subpoenaed White House recordings after being ordered to do so by the US Supreme Court. In 1975 former Teamsters union president Jimmy Hoffa disappeared in suburban Detroit -- although presumed dead, his remains have never been found; also on this day, representatives of 35 countries convened in Finland for a conference on security and human rights that resulted in the Helsinki accords. In 1980 the Israeli Knesset passed a law reaffirming all of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state. In 1997 14 Israelis were killed in a double suicide bombing in a Jerusalem marketplace; Hamas terrorists claimed responsibility for the bombings. In 2004 leaders of the Sept. 11 commission urged senators to embrace their proposals for massive changes to the nation's intelligence structure.

Democratic pollsters Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen write:

Barack Obama promised a new era of post-partisanship. In office, he's played racial politics and further split the country along class and party lines.

Michael Barone:

... the Republicans, as George W. Bush said, took "a thumping" in 2006. And most signs suggest Democrats will take a thumping this year too.

To see why, take a look at the generic ballot question -- which party's candidate will you vote for in elections to the House? The current realclearpolitics.com average shows Republicans ahead by 45 to 41 percent. Ten of this month's 15 opinion polls asking the question had Republicans ahead; Democrats led in four (twice by 1 percent), and one poll showed a tie.

Keep in mind that the generic ballot question historically has tended to underpredict Republican performance in off-year elections. Gallup has been asking the question since 1950 and has shown Republicans leading only in two cycles, 1994 and 2002, and then by less than the 7 and 5 points by which they won the popular vote for the House in those years.

So the Republicans' current lead in the generic ballot question suggests they may be on the brink of doing better than in any election since 1946, when they won a 245-188 margin in the House -- larger than any they've held ever since.

Read the whole piece.

July 29 ...

In 1588 the English defeated the Spanish Armada in the Battle of Gravelines. In 1900 Italian King Humbert I was assassinated by an anarchist; he was succeeded by his son, Victor Emmanuel III. In 1914 transcontinental telephone service began with the first phone conversation between New York and San Francisco. In 1958 President Eisenhower signed the National Aeronautics and Space Act, which created NASA. In 1967 fire swept the USS Forrestal in the Gulf of Tonkin, killing 134 servicemen. In 1975 President Ford became the first US president to visit the site of the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz in Poland as he paid tribute to the victims. In 1980 a state funeral was held in Cairo, Egypt, for the deposed Shah of Iran, who had died two days earlier at age 60. In 1981 Britain's Prince Charles married Lady Diana Spencer at St. Paul's Cathedral in London. (The couple divorced in 1996.) In 1985 the space shuttle Challenger began an eight-day mission that got off to a shaky start -- the spacecraft achieved a safe orbit even though one of its main engines shut down prematurely after lift-off. In 2004 Sen. John Kerry accepted the Democratic presidential nomination at the party's convention in Boston with a military salute and the declaration: "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty." In 2005 astronomers announced that they had discovered a tenth planet larger than Pluto in orbit around the sun.

Who do you like, President Carter's former speechwriter, or Rep. Ryan?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

July 28 ...

In 1540 King Henry VIII's chief minister, Thomas Cromwell, was executed, the same day Henry married his fifth wife, Catherine Howard. In 1655 French dramatist and novelist Cyrano de Bergerac, the inspiration for a play by Edmond Rostand, died in Paris. In 1794 Maximilien Robespierre was sent to the guillotine and executed. In 1821 Peru declared its independence from Spain. In 1866 children's author Beatrix Potter was born in London. In 1868 the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, guaranteeing due process of law, was declared in effect. In 1896 the city of Miami, FL, was incorporated. In 1914 World War I officially began when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. In 1932 Federal troops forcibly dispersed the so-called Bonus Army of World War I veterans who had gathered in Washington to demand money they weren't scheduled to receive until 1945. In 1942 Soviet leader Joseph Stalin issued Order No. 227, under which all soldiers who retreated or otherwise left their positions without orders were to be be immediately killed. In 1945 the US Senate ratified the United Nations Charter by a vote of 89-2; also on this day, a US Army bomber crashed into the 79th floor of New York's Empire State Building, killing 14 people. In 1965 President Johnson announced he was increasing the number of American troops in South Vietnam from 75,000 to 125,000. In 2000 Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori was sworn in for an unprecedented third term of office, infuriating demonstrators who set government buildings ablaze. In 2004 the Democratic National Convention in Boston formally nominated John Kerry for president; also on this day, Francis Crick, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist who co-discovered the "double-helix" structure of DNA, died in San Diego at age 88.

From a Wall Street Journal editorial:

Democrats have been running Congress for nearly four years, and President Obama has been at the White House for 18 months, so it's not too soon to ask: How's that working out? One devastating scorecard came out Friday from the White House, in the form of its own semi-annual budget review.

The message: Tax revenues are smaller, spending is greater, and the deficits are thus larger than the White House has been saying. No wonder it dumped the news on the eve of a sweltering mid-July weekend.

Mr. Obama inherited a recession, so let's give him a pass on the budget numbers for 2009. Clearly the deficit would have been large no matter who was President, even if the David Obey-Nancy Pelosi $862 billion stimulus made it larger than it otherwise would have been. What's striking about the latest budget estimates, however, is that the White House is predicting the numbers won't improve much through 2011, the third year of the President's term.

As a share of the economy, the White House now says the deficit in fiscal 2010, which ends on September 30, will be even larger than in 2009: 10%. That's after a full year of economic growth, given that the recovery began last summer. More remarkable still, the deficit will barely fall in fiscal 2011, declining only to 9.2% of GDP in the second year of a recovery that ought to be gaining steam.

... Democrats have been undertaking a vast fiscal policy experiment, blowing out the federal balance sheet in an effort to show that a country can spend and tax its way to prosperity. Look no further than the numbers in the White House's own budget review for the unhappy lab results.

Read the whole piece.

I don't know, too much medical marijuana?

Or because they think you're stupid?

July 27 ...

In 1775 Benjamin Rush began his service as the first Surgeon General of the Continental Army. In 1789 Congress established the Department of Foreign Affairs, the forerunner of the Department of State. In 1794 French revolutionary leader Maximilien Robespierre was overthrown and placed under arrest; he was executed the following day. In 1861 Union Gen. George B. McClellan was put in command of the Army of the Potomac. In 1866 Cyrus W. Field finally succeeded, after two failures, in laying the first underwater telegraph cable between North America and Europe. In 1909 Orville Wright set a record for the longest airplane flight. He was testing the first Army airplane and kept it in the air for 1 hour 12 minutes and 40 seconds. In 1921 researchers at the University of Toronto led by biochemist Frederick Banting announce the discovery of the hormone insulin. In 1940 Bugs Bunny made his official debut in the Warner Bros. animated cartoon A Wild Hare. In 1953 the Korean War armistice was signed at Panmunjom, ending three years of fighting. In 1955 the Allied occupation of Austria ended. In 1960 Vice President Richard M. Nixon was nominated for president at the Republican National Convention in Chicago. In 1969 the Chicago Cubs were in 1st place. In 1974 the House Judiciary Committee voted 27-11 to recommend President Nixon's impeachment on a charge that he had personally engaged in a "course of conduct" designed to obstruct justice in the Watergate case. In 1977 the Chicago Cubs were in 1st place. In 1980 on day 267 of the Iranian hostage crisis, the deposed Shah of Iran died at a military hospital outside Cairo, Egypt, at age 60. In 1999 the US space shuttle Columbia completed a five-day mission commanded by Air Force Col. Eileen Collins. It was the first shuttle mission to be commanded by a woman. In 2003 it was reported by the BBC that there was no monster in Loch Ness. The investigation used 600 separate sonar beams and satellite navigation technology to trawl the loch. Reports of sightings of the "Loch Ness Monster" began in the 6th century. In 2008 the Chicago Cubs were in 1st place. In 2009 the Chicago Cubs were in 1st place.