It is hard to avoid the conclusion that unified Democratic government has sparked a conservative counter-mobilization. Because we cannot rerun history as a controlled experiment, we will never know whether this could have been avoided had the Obama administration and Congressional Democrats adopted a different strategy. In any case, it?s too late to reverse it.

Still, Democrats must ask themselves whether there?s anything they can do over the next year--for example, a meaningful shift toward fiscal restraint--to reduce the intensity level of the conservative assault. If not, the combination of an energized opposition and an electorate battered by high unemployment, slow growth, and the perception of out-of-control spending could set the stage for an ugly outcome. This wouldn?t mean that Republicans had regained credibility as a governing party; odds are that it will take more than two years to erase the public?s sour memories of the Republican congressional majority and George W. Bush?s presidency. It would mean that a substantial portion of the electorate wanted to send Democrats a message that they had gone too far.