Joel Kotkin:

The connection between suburbs and political victory should have been clear by now. Middle- and working-class suburbanites keyed the surprising election win of Republican Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts in January. Suburban voters were also crucial to the 2009 Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, two key swing states.

Nationally, suburban approval for the Democrats has dropped to 39 percent this year, from 48 percent two years ago. Disapproval for President Barack Obama is also high -- nearly 48 percent of suburbanites disapprove, compared to only 35 percent of urbanites. Even Obama's strong support among minority suburbanites, a fast-growing group, has declined substantially.

Many suburban voters, notes Lawrence Levy, executive director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, appear to be undergoing "buyer's remorse" for backing Obama and the Democrats last time around.

Much of the suburban distress, of course, stems from the still perilous state of the economy.
...

But there may be other, perhaps more nuanced, reasons for the administration's suburban disconnect. Many of the administration's most high-profile initiatives have tended to reflect the views of urban interests -- roughly 20 percent of the population -- rather than suburban ones.

... Obama made clear that he is more interested in containing suburbia than enhancing it. In Florida last February, the president declared, "the days of building sprawl" are "over."

Much of the Obama policy agenda -- from mass transit and high-speed rail to support for "smart growth" policies -- appeals to city planners and urbanistas. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has spoken openly of "coercing" Americans out their cars and the Department of Housing and Urban Development is handing out grants to regions which support densification strategies that amount to forced urbanization of suburbs.

This is a problem since the vast majority of Americans -- consistently more than 80 percent -- do not prefer to live in dense big cities. Most want a house rather than being forced to live in an apartment. And for all but a handful, a car, not a bus or train, remains not only the preferred way to get to work, but often the only feasible means to get work -- mostly in the suburbs.

October 31 ...

In 1517 Martin Luther posted the 95 Theses on the door of the Wittenberg Palace church, marking the start of the Protestant Reformation in Germany. In 1795 English poet John Keats was born in London. In 1864 Nevada became the 36th state. In 1941 the US Navy destroyer Reuben James was torpedoed by a German U-boat off Iceland with the loss of 115 lives, even though the US had not yet entered World War II. In 1955 Britain's Princess Margaret ended weeks of speculation by announcing she would not marry Royal Air Force Captain Peter Townsend. In 1968 President Johnson ordered a halt to all US bombing of North Vietnam, saying he hoped for fruitful peace negotiations. In 1980 Reza Pahlavi, eldest son of the late shah of Iran, proclaimed himself the rightful successor to the Peacock Throne. In 1984 Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two Sikh security guards. In 2000 American astronaut Bill Shepherd and two Russian cosmonauts rocketed into orbit aboard a Soyuz rocket on a quest to become the first residents of the international space station.

The Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel lives in a different universe than most everyone else.

65 years ago on this date in 1945, the US government announced the end of shoe rationing.

October 30 ...

In 1735 the second president of the United States, John Adams, was born in Braintree, MA. In 1938 the radio play The War of the Worlds, starring Orson Welles, aired on CBS. (The live drama, which employed fake news reports, panicked some listeners who thought its portrayal of a Martian invasion was true.) In 1945 the US government announced the end of shoe rationing. In 1953 Gen. George C. Marshall was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Dr. Albert Schweitzer received the Peace Prize for 1952. In 1961 the Soviet Union tested a hydrogen bomb with a force estimated at 58 megatons; also on this day, the Soviet Party Congress unanimously approved a resolution ordering the removal of Josef Stalin's body from Lenin's tomb. In 1975 the New York Daily News ran the headline "Ford to City: Drop Dead" a day after President Ford said he would veto any proposed federal bailout of New York City. In 1995 Federalists prevailed over separatists in Quebec in a secession referendum by a vote of 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. In 2004 the decapitated body of a Japanese backpacker (Shosei Koda) was found wrapped in an American flag in northwestern Baghdad; the militant group led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi later claimed responsibility.

Stuart Rothenberg:

With a week to go until Election Day, House Democrats face the potential of a political bloodbath the size of which we haven?t seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

The largest midterm House loss for the president?s party during the last 50 years was 52 seats in 1994. The previous largest losses were 55 seats in 1942 and 71 seats in 1938.

While some Democrats say their party will keep Republican gains to fewer than 39 seats, Democratic losses are likely to be much higher.
...

Republican polling shows more Democratic incumbents sitting in the mid-40s in ballot tests than I have ever seen. If the patterns of past years hold, Republican gains could well exceed those of 1994.

Having been in Washington, D.C., since 1980 and rated races for more than two decades ? including the 1994 and 2006 waves ? I?ve seen this before.

A variety of Democrats are in deep trouble.
...

Democratic losses are likely to be particularly large in the South and the Midwest.
...

The magnitude of the GOP victory could be evident relatively early in the evening. If Republicans defeat Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and/or Ben Chandler (Ky.), or if North Carolina Reps. McIntyre, Shuler and Etheridge fall, massive Democratic losses are likely.

On the other hand, if Reps. Baron Hill (Ind.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) pull off upsets, or if either Virginia Democrats Nye or Perriello win, it could well be a sign that the GOP wave hasn?t materialized as expected.

Read the whole piece.

October 29 ...

In 1682 the founder of Pennsylvania, William Penn, landed at what is now Chester, PA. In 1901 President McKinley's assassin, Leon Czolgosz, was electrocuted. In 1923 the Republic of Turkey was proclaimed. In 1929 on Black Tuesday, prices collapsed amid panic selling and thousands of investors were wiped out as America's Great Depression began. In 1947 former first lady Frances Cleveland Preston died in Baltimore at age 83. In 1956 during the Suez Canal crisis, Israel launched an invasion of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. In 1966 the National Organization for Women was founded. In 1969 the precursor to the Internet was created when the first computer-to-computer link was established on the Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET). In 1979 on the 50th anniversary of the great stock market crash, anti-nuclear protesters tried but failed to shut down the New York Stock Exchange. In 1998 Sen. John Glenn, at age 77, went back into space aboard the shuttle Discovery. In 2004 in a videotaped statement broadcast on al Jazeera, Osama bin Laden directly admitted for the first time that he'd ordered the Sept. 11 attacks and told America "the best way to avoid another Manhattan" was to stop threatening Muslims' security; also on this day, European Union leaders signed the EU's first constitution.

A NYT/CBS News poll has bad news for Democrats -- most surprising: woman voters favor Repubs by 4 points, the first time that has happened in almost 30 years, according to the Times' Jim Rutenberg and Megan Thee-Brenan:

If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.

In 2008, women favored Dems by 13 points over Repubs.

ABC's George Stephanopoulos notes this finding:

Clearing the decks in Chicago.

Crain's Chicago Business' Greg Hinz reports: (emphasis added)

Can you say "Mayor Rahm?"

There's no way other way to spin it.

The surprise news that Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart will not run for mayor is a huge boost for ex-White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel -- even if a third contender, state Sen. James Meeks, is moving to profit from events, too.

Mr. Dart is well-known, well-connected and well-liked by Democratic ward bosses and aldermen who shudder at the thought of having to deal with a strong-willed Mayor Rahmbo. He could have put hundreds, maybe thousands of precinct workers on the street.
...

"On a 10-point scale, (Mr. Dart's decision) is a 9.5" in terms of helping Mr. Emanuel, said U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley, who holds Mr. Emanuel's old North/Northwest Side seat in Congress. "Who else is there?"

...with only one major Anglo white candidate apparently in the race -- Mr. Emanuel -- a Meeks candidacy may not be easy. If the committeemen don't like Mr. Emanuel, I can't see them swinging to an independent South Sider who came out of Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr.'s organization.

... Mr. Emanuel can allow himself a smile today. His path to victory just got a lot, lot easier.

The Telegraph's Daniel Hannan:

Having cast the Tea Party as a deranged rabble, Leftie commentators must explain how these lunatics took over the asylum. Perhaps they should consider the most obvious explanation: that they might not in fact be lunatics.

I have no special brief for the Tea Party. I'm sure that, like all big organisations, it contains its share of cranks. But most Americans regard the proposition that taxation, spending and borrowing have risen too quickly as essentially reasonable. That's the thing: neither I nor [Guardian columnist] George Monbiot gets to decide what "extreme" is any more. The Internet has broken the old cartels; pundits have lost their powers. We are finally approximating the ideal of government of, by and for the people -- and, unsurprisingly, not everyone likes it.

Michael Barone:

The mainstream press hasn't shown much interest in reporting on unions' campaign spending, which amounted to some $400 million in the 2008 cycle. And it hasn't seen fit to run long investigative stories on why public employee unions -- the large majority of which work for state and local governments -- contribute so much more to campaigns for federal office.
...

Public employees' union dues and contributions to union PACs come from directly from taxpayers. So if you live in a state or city with strong public employee unions, you are paying a tax that goes to elect Democratic candidates (plus, perhaps, a few malleable Republicans).
...

The problem is that, as [President Franklin] Roosevelt understood, public employee unions' interests are directly the opposite of those of taxpayers. Public employee unions want government to be more expensive and government employees to be less accountable.
...

Public employee unions have collected big time from the Obama Democrats. The February 2009 stimulus package contained $160 billion in aid to state and local governments. This was intended to, and did, insulate public employee union members from the ravages of the recession that afflicted those unfortunate enough to make their livings in the private sector.

October 28 ...

In 1636 Harvard College was founded in Massachusetts. In 1793 Eli Whitney applied for a patent for his cotton gin (the patent was granted the following March). In 1886 the Statue of Liberty, a gift from the people of France, was dedicated in New York Harbor by President Cleveland. In 1919 Congress enacted the Volstead Act, which provided for enforcement of Prohibition, over President Wilson's veto. In 1922 Benito Mussolini and his Fascist Party took control of the Italian government. In 1936 President Roosevelt rededicated the Statue of Liberty on its 50th anniversary. In 1940 Italy invaded Greece during World War II. In 1958 the Roman Catholic patriarch of Venice, Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli, was elected Pope; he took the name John XXIII. In 1962 Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev informed the US that he had ordered the dismantling of Soviet missile bases in Cuba. In 1980 President Carter and Republican presidential nominee Ronald Reagan faced off in a nationally broadcast, 90-minute debate in Cleveland.

Bloomberg's Lisa Lerer reports:

Comedy Central television hosts Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert expect tens of thousands of fans to join them at the "Rally to Restore Sanity" in Washington Oct. 30, three days before congressional elections across the U.S. The president will appear on "The Daily Show" tonight in his first visit to Stewart's program since he was elected.

"It will be a great chance to rally the base, especially among young people," said Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University in Washington. "For Stewart, sanity is a code word for Democratic."

Guess who wrote this:

I continue to believe that Obama is the president many Independents voted for: pragmatic, smart, non-ideological and remarkably successful under the circumstances. But they have been blinded by propaganda, enabled by profound and resilient joblessness that, in a perfect world, Obama might have prevented, but in the real world, did about as much as he possibly could to alleviate, within prudent parameters.

Go ahead, guess...